The Monty Hall problem
The problem
You're on a game show. There are three doors. Behind one is a car, behind the other two are goats. You pick door 1. The host — who knows what's behind every door — opens door 3 to reveal a goat. Then he asks: do you want to switch to door 2, or stay with door 1?
Tempting (but wrong)
It feels obvious. Two doors are left. One has a car, the other has a goat. So it's 50/50, and it doesn't matter whether you switch.
This is the answer almost everyone gives — including, famously, a lot of mathematicians when the problem was first published.
It's wrong.