The Two Children Paradox
The problem
Someone tells you:
"I have exactly two children. At least one of them is a boy."
What is the probability that both of their children are boys?
Tempting (but wrong)
The instinct: the other child is independent — fifty-fifty boy or girl. We're told one is a boy, so the chance both are boys equals the chance the other one is a boy, which is .
This treats one specific child as known, then asks about the other in isolation. That's a different problem.