Wait for HH vs HT
The problem
A fair coin is flipped repeatedly.
- Game A: stop the first time you see HH (two heads in a row).
- Game B: stop the first time you see HT (heads then tails).
Which game ends sooner on average? Are they the same?
Tempting (but wrong)
The patterns HH and HT are equally likely on any specific pair of consecutive flips — each occurs with probability . So both games should have the same expected stopping time. Right?
This is the "frequency equals waiting time" intuition. It's wrong.